面向诸元计算精度鉴定的二次抽样试验设计方法

针对诸元计算精度常规试验方法的缺点和不足之处,提出了"二次抽样"的试验设计方法,在一次抽样的基础上,通过对试验结果进行分析,进行第二次有针对性的抽样试验,并采用贝叶斯估计方法,对两次相关联的试验结果进行综合评价。最后采用该方法对某型炮兵指控系统的诸元计算精度进行了检验,证明了该方法的实用性和有效性。与常规试验方法相比,二次抽样法对诸元计算中各变量不同值域的权重进行了重新分配,其计算结果对被试装备的实际性能更具有指向性。     

ARCS动机模型在初中英语语法教学中的应用

语法学习能在一定程度上保证语言的地道性、流畅性和实用性。但就目前来看,英语学习者学习语法的积极性普遍不高,不少英语学习者抱怨英语语法项目琐碎繁杂、语法学习枯燥无聊。针对此现状,本文尝试将ARCS模型的四类动机策略整合于初中英语语法教学,以期有效激发并维持学习者的语法学习热情,提高语法教学效果。     

Real-time prediction of projectile penetration to laminates by training machine learning models withfinite element solver as the trainer

Studies on ballistic penetration to laminates is complicated, but important for design effective protection of structures. Experimental means of study is expensive and can often be dangerous. Numerical simu-lation has been an excellent supplement, but the computation is time-consuming. Main aim of this thesis was to develop and test an effective tool for real-time prediction of projectile penetrations to laminates by training a neural network and a decision tree regression model. A large number of finite element models were developed;the residual velocities of projectiles fromfinite element simulations were used as the target data and processed to produce sufficient number of training samples. Study focused on steel 4340tpolyurea laminates with various configurations. Four different 3D shapes of the projectiles were modeled and used in the training. The trained neural network and decision tree model was tested using independently generated test samples using finite element models. The predicted projectile velocity values using the trained machine learning models are then compared with thefinite element simulation to verify the effectiveness of the models. Additionally, both models were trained using a published experimental data of projectile impacts to predict residual velocity of projectiles for the unseen samples. Performance of both the models was evaluated and compared. Models trained with Finite element simulation data samples were found capable to give more accurate predication, compared to the models trained with experimental data, becausefinite element modeling can generate much larger training set, and thus finite element solvers can serve as an excellent teacher. This study also showed that neural network model performs better with small experimental dataset compared to decision tree regression model.     

An adaptive forecasting algorithm and inventory policy for products with short life cycles

Products with short life cycles are becoming increasingly common in many industries, such as the personal computer (PC) and mobile phone industries. Traditional forecasting methods and inventory policies can be inappropriate for forecasting demand and managing inventory for a product with a short life cycle because they usually do not take into account the characteristics of the product life cycle. This can result in inaccurate forecasts, high inventory cost, and low service levels. Besides, many forecasting methods require a significant demand history, which is available only after the product has been sold for some time. In this paper, we present an adaptive forecasting algorithm with two characteristics. First, it uses structural knowledge on the product life cycle to model the demand. Second, it combines knowledge on the demand that is available prior to the launch of the product with actual demand data that become available after the introduction of the product to generate and update demand forecasts. Based on the forecasting algorithm, we develop an optimal inventory policy. Since the optimal inventory policy is computationally expensive, we propose three heuristics and show in a numerical study that one of the heuristics generates near‐optimal solutions. The evaluation of our approach is based on demand data from a leading PC manufacturer in the United States, where the forecasting algorithm has been implemented. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.     

基于动态贝叶斯网络的弹道导弹态势评估模型研究

针对弹道导弹态势评估的特点,分析了弹道导弹的作战过程和弹道导弹主动段作战特点。在此基础上,给出了动态贝叶斯网络用于弹道导弹态势评估的建模过程,建立了基于动态贝叶斯网络的弹道导弹态势评估模型,并依据观测到的数据对模型进行了仿真,结果表明,将动态贝叶斯网络应用于弹道导弹的态势评估模型是可行的,该模型能够对飞行中的弹道导弹态势快速准确作出评估。     

背景音乐对人类学习效率影响的脑与行为研究进展

背景青乐是与主体的意识或行为无直接关系,通过非青乐鉴赏环境这一媒介间接作用于主体意识与行为的音乐。近些年来将背景音乐引入教育领域来探讨其对学习效率的影响是研究的新课题。从背景音乐对学习效率影响的相关理论、背景音乐对学习效率影响的实验研究以及背景音乐影响的研究趋势等方面进行了综述。     

建构学习理论在教学中的应用

在教学中运用建构学习理论,针对“基于经验的知识建构活动”进行有益尝试。在此理论背景下,教师最重要的任务是利用三个层次的建构性经验源为学生提供知识建构的良好条件,并探讨这一理念在教学中的具体应用及其效果。     

一种支持向量机增量学习淘汰算法

针对大规模数据集的分类问题,支持向量机的训练成为一个难题。增量学习是解决这一难题的思路之一。分析了新增样本加入训练集后支持向量集的变化情况,提出了一种基于密度法的支持向量机增量学习淘汰算法,淘汰了对最终分类无用的样本,在保证测试精度的同时减少了训练时间。实验仿真证明这种算法是有效的。     

综合性大学师范类学生学习倦怠现状研究

本文用连榕等参照Maslach编制的《大学生学习倦怠调查量表》对师范类专业大学生进行问卷调查,旨在探讨综合性大学中师范类学生学习倦怠状况。结果表明：学生的学习倦怠处于中等程度。男生的学习倦怠程度显著高于女生;不同年级的学生在学习倦怠的各个维度上差异显著;不同专业学生学习倦怠状况差异显著,理科最为严重;城镇学生的学习倦怠程度和农村学生差异不显著。     

中国近代编辑出版工作者的矛盾心理分析

中国近代编辑出版是在旧制度已经衰败、新制度尚未建立的历史背景下发展起来的。西方文明与中国古老文明的冲突、旧思想与新思想的较量、公共利益与个体利益的矛盾必然存在。中国近代编辑出版工作者面对西学与中学、雅文化与俗文化、社会效益与经济效益的选择时,存在着矛盾心理,并为中国文化的近代化作出了贡献。